Rupee has come down aggressively from its all time high of 54.30 seen during Mid December 2011. It has touched 48.60 due to several factors I have highlighted earlier. The most two critical factor is RBI intervention directly and indirectly and huge FII Inflow in a very short period. The Rupee appreciation has somehow settle down and it remain range bound between 48.75~ 49.70 in the last few days. The Indian factor particularly the poor IIP data did not support INR further appreciation. No clarity on interest rate by RBI has also kept the INR range bound .Lack of clarity on Greece is also one reason for Rupee not showing any direction. Corporate & Government has also purchased Dollar for Defense payment and ECB restructuring. Brent Crude price which has touched six Months high to USD 118 due to crisis in Iran and Nigeria will also put pressure on Rupee as it will increase the Import Bill. The recent arrangement by Government of Iran & India to settle 45% of Crude purchase in INR currency will also put less pressure on INR if it got implemented smoothly . Development in Euro zone will be critical factor for the Rupee to set direction in coming Month. The outcome of State Election and the tone of the Union Budget will also set the direction of INR against USD.
No comments:
Post a Comment