Thursday, July 5, 2012

Economic Update _5th July 2012

There were rumors going around that Government of India is considering abolishing Withholding Tax requirement on Govt Bond subscribed by foreigners which has been denied specifically by Government official. Commodity prices are going up gradually with the expectation that US, ECB and PBOC may give stimulus to boost the Economy. ECB reduced interest rate by 25bps as expected and took to its to life time low rate of 0.75 but Global Investors were expecting much more aggressive rate cut which disappoint the Market . PBOC reduced interest rate by 25bps in a surprise move. This rate cut was expected to boost the Economy but it came earlier than expected. In China the key sector like Infrastructure, Reality and Export are dragging its Economy. The job situation in this key sector is not yet concerning but deteriorating. It will not come down so quickly due the Government fear. EURO lost its strength and came down to 1.23 levels as the steps taken by ECB by reducing the rate was less than expected. Now all are looking towards US Nonfarm payroll data which will influence FED decision on QE III. BOE announced liquidity support to the tune of GBP 50 Billion. SENSEX has consolidated its position in the last few days and next move will depend upon the June Quarter announcement by the Indian Corporate. INR appreciated to the level of 54.18 from the high of 57.32 but has lost some ground due to Dollar demand by Indian corporate. It should now consolidate between 54.50~55.50 for some time before further gaining after President Election.

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