IIP for the month of June has been released and it is a dismal ( –1.8% ) YoY. This is much lower than what was expected . IIP Growth of India is alaramingly low since last few Months and no trend is emerging . It is neither getting consistently down nor going consistently upward . This is really concerning and looking into these data GDP growth of April~June quarter will be definitely be very low ( may be below 5% ) . The June Quarter ended with a YOY IIP growth of 0% . Consumer Durable Industry has maintained its positive upward trend and registered agrowth of 9.1% . As the inflation is at uncomfortably high levels currently, further rate cuts by RBI do not look likely unless . In such a situation, the only hope is Government initiating its reform agenda but the positive effects of this, if it should take place, will occur with a lag and is unlikely to be significant before the end of this fiscal. Until then, industrial production data is likely to remain weak for at least the first half of this year.
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