Thursday, November 14, 2013

INR started depreciating again against USD

vAfter staying range bound for almost two Month INR started  depreciating  suddenly in last 7 Days 
 
àKEY  REASON
 
v Fear of  of early QE3 tapering,  as positive Economic data started coming from USA ( higher Sept Quarter GDP , Improved employment & improved industrial activity )
 
v Indian Oil Marketing Companies returned back to FX market steadily .( Since last two Months they were taking USD  directly from RBI as per some special swap arrangement )
 
v FII,s selling from Indian Equity  for profit taking ( Equity Market  dropped1100 points  in last 7 days )

à POSITIVE  FACTORS
 
v unlike the situation in August 13 when INR touched 68.80 , India seems to be better prepared now to face QE3 impact
 
v In last two Months USD 18 Billion FX inward has come from NRI deposits & Bank borrowing ( as per Special RBI support )
 
vImproved CAD  will be a big support to INR in next  few Months, if the trend is maintained 
 
vProactive approach & assurance by RBI Governor to the Market will be a big positive to the Market 
 
vNew Governor of  Federal reserve  Ms Janet Yellen ( to take charge in Jan 14 ) considered to be  pro stimulus ( may  delay QE3 tapering) 

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