Thursday, November 3, 2011

Tussle between Greece Vs Rest of EU

It is a typical example of self interest Vs Group interest , Till yesterday all were together . All were saying Greece has to be rescued from Default . Now it is a different situation . After the surpise move by Greece PM to held a referendum on the Greece Bail out proposal , rest of the EU nations are surprised and warning Greece . Till yesterday they were trying best to escape Greece default . Now they are warning Greece that even the Nov 11 support of USD 11 Billion will not be given  if the Referendum does not support the package. Greece has replied that they have sufficient fund to meet the December 2011 payment  requirment . To make the situation more critical the Greece Govt also not having comfortable support of the parliament to conduct  the referendum . They have just above 50% support . The Govt is facing No confidence motion again and again . The French Premier has clearly announced that Greece entry to EU was a mistake . Now EU ( - Greece ) are seriously considering the option  to remove  Greece out of EU . They are ready to face any situation . To make it more curious Greece is also mullying the idea to keep itself out of the EU . Reality is that Countries are not equal size . Neither equal economically nor politically .

The problem is that some of the other EU Countries are also not in good condition . Countries like Spain , Italy , Portugal are also in deep trouble . So even if Greece is out EU problem will not vanish immediately . German , France the poerful two also not showing impressive GDP growth . So future is very very uncertain . All these advantage will go to USD strenthning for a prolonged period . Even if  Greecee agrees to the EU proposal it is not clear till now how the Fund will be increased . EU is banking too much to China support .

Greece only constitute 2.5% of the 17 Nations EU GDP but the the implication of Greece leaving EU will be too much . No one will Trust Europe any more . Other poor  Economy of  EU will immediately come to lime light . Geece has never tried to improve itself after the first bail out in 2010 . Greece is likly to have GDP Growth of -5% this year and likely -3% next year . This will make it consecutive four years in recession

Have you heard just before the G20 meet Indian FM has announced that India may also consider to give financial support for bailing out EU !!!!!

Let us see how it is moving  

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